Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 29.609692 32.938479 36.746296 41.486558 47.321114 54.397385 63.843595
2025-06-29 24.472646 28.563916 33.655939 40.666837 50.442913 64.266821 86.818201
2025-07-06 22.252782 27.008961 33.364235 42.948194 58.061857 83.385529 137.030035
2025-07-13 19.876983 24.737690 31.543240 42.477027 61.385966 97.895039 198.422752
2025-07-20 18.294797 23.254006 30.481553 42.771182 65.979896 118.012873 319.408113
2025-07-27 17.075742 22.089864 29.650395 43.165554 70.876418 143.415722 591.296106
2025-08-03 15.982486 20.961837 28.675170 43.039590 74.656771 170.646410 1317.783328
2025-08-10 14.987199 19.867319 27.588644 42.450008 77.175203 198.166347 4665.936690
2025-08-17 14.258696 19.108002 26.949395 42.575170 81.565113 242.281623 NaN
2025-08-24 13.561281 18.331353 26.180849 42.275948 84.763647 290.584150 NaN
2025-08-31 12.912756 17.578754 25.368638 41.729306 87.088677 344.158448 NaN
2025-09-07 12.350834 16.923993 24.661948 41.285838 89.634318 414.953514 NaN
2025-09-14 11.857372 16.356185 24.073613 41.048934 93.030677 525.006661 NaN
2025-09-21 11.322448 15.686022 23.239040 40.114640 93.643796 618.033939 NaN
2025-09-28 11.198076 15.695556 23.672718 42.285822 107.688799 1304.606266 NaN
2025-10-05 10.789758 15.192646 23.077927 41.802407 110.525921 1947.690637 NaN
2025-10-12 10.493595 14.865265 22.795881 42.078724 117.291147 4513.873213 NaN
2025-10-19 10.229867 14.578020 22.566797 42.458307 125.158423 33861.499691 NaN
2025-10-26 9.938416 14.225273 22.176446 42.333907 130.460572 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.627428 13.822117 21.653585 41.759307 132.905349 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.397767 13.553034 21.386668 41.880829 140.141646 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.148500 13.236605 20.998467 41.589431 144.629752 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 8.895254 12.901940 20.550248 41.057176 147.184879 NaN NaN